Cross-WH-Uncertainty
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Executive Summary
Introduction
1
Asking the right question
1.1
Understanding the problem
1.2
How will output ranges be used?
1.3
What information do we need from the decision maker to appropriately incorporate uncertainty analysis?
2
Sources of uncertainty
2.1
Specifying and collecting data
2.2
Data Processing
2.3
Specification of the model
2.4
Assumptions
2.5
Applying model results
2.6
General Approaches for Quantifying Uncertainty in a single parameter
3
Conducting uncertainty analysis
3.1
Plausible scenarios
3.2
Testing outputs as part of quality assurance
4
Presenting and Communicating uncertainty
4.1
Framing the different uncertainties
4.2
Understanding the audience
4.3
Language
4.4
Numbers
4.5
Tables
4.6
Graphs and visualisation
4.7
Errors bars
4.8
Box plots
4.9
Probability density functions (PDFs)
4.10
Multiple Probability Density Functions
4.11
Cumulative density functions (CDFs)
4.12
Fan Charts
4.13
Spaghetti Plots
4.14
Multiple Line Charts
4.15
Tornado Diagrams
4.16
Infographics
4.17
Interactive Tools
References
Published with bookdown
Government Uncertainty Guidance
Executive Summary
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